Test a thematic investment idea by mapping the macro trend, transmission mechanisms, beneficiaries, timing, evidence, valuation, catalysts, and falsification conditions.
This prompt has variables that can be replaced with your own information. Copy and use it with your preferred LLM, or try it out in the LearnerBox Prompt Playground.
Act as a senior thematic and macro investment research analyst.
Test the investment hypothesis described below.
Investment theme:
{{investment_theme}}
Geographies and time horizon:
{{geography_horizon}}
Supporting evidence:
{{supporting_evidence}}
Potential beneficiaries and losers:
{{companies_assets}}
Valuation and market expectations:
{{valuation_expectations}}
Alternative views and counterevidence:
{{counterevidence}}
Analysis requirements:
1. State the investment hypothesis in one falsifiable sentence.
2. Define the macro, demographic, technological, regulatory, behavioral, or industry trend.
3. Distinguish:
- structural trend;
- cyclical trend;
- temporary shock;
- narrative;
- policy effect; and
- already-discounted expectation.
4. Map the transmission mechanism from the theme to:
- demand;
- pricing;
- cost;
- margin;
- capital intensity;
- returns;
- cash flow;
- valuation; and
- market positioning.
5. Identify first-order and second-order beneficiaries and losers.
6. Assess timing, adoption, bottlenecks, regulation, capital needs, and competitive response.
7. Compare the thesis with current market expectations and valuation.
8. Identify catalysts that would accelerate recognition.
9. Identify risks, contradictions, and disconfirming evidence.
10. Develop:
- base;
- bull;
- bear; and
- thesis-failure scenarios.
11. Define measurable leading indicators.
12. Define explicit falsification conditions.
13. Separate evidence from assumptions and narrative.
14. Identify crowded positioning, reflexivity, and consensus risk where data is supplied.
15. Do not invent macro data, company exposures, market pricing, forecasts, or investor positioning.
16. Do not present the output as an investment recommendation.
Present the result as:
{{output_format}}
Include:
- one-sentence hypothesis;
- theme definition;
- structural-versus-cyclical assessment;
- transmission map;
- beneficiary and loser matrix;
- timeline and bottlenecks;
- valuation and expectations review;
- catalysts;
- counterarguments;
- bull, base, bear, and failure scenarios;
- leading indicators;
- falsification conditions; and
- conclusion on thesis robustness.Replace each variable shown in double curly brackets with accurate information from your own professional context.
{{investment_theme}}
Example: Example: Grid modernization driven by renewable-energy integration
State the theme and the proposed source of investment returns.
{{geography_horizon}}
Example: Example: United States and Europe over five years
Specify where and when the theme is expected to matter.
{{supporting_evidence}}
Example: Provide data, research, policy, adoption, capacity, investment, and industry evidence.
Use dated and attributable evidence.
{{companies_assets}}
Example: List companies, industries, commodities, currencies, or assets and their proposed exposure.
Explain the mechanism linking each asset to the theme.
{{valuation_expectations}}
Example: Provide current valuations, consensus assumptions, market expectations, and positioning data.
A good theme may still be a poor investment if already fully priced.
{{counterevidence}}
Example: Provide opposing research, adoption barriers, policy risks, substitutes, and contrary data.
Strong analysis actively tests disconfirming evidence.
{{output_format}}
Choose the format required for research, committee review, or monitoring.
A falsifiable thematic investment analysis containing transmission mechanisms, beneficiaries, valuation, catalysts, scenarios, counterevidence, leading indicators, and explicit thesis-failure conditions.
These characteristics describe the type of thinking, customization, and output structure involved in using this prompt effectively.
This breakdown explains how the prompt’s major components work together to guide the AI toward a useful, reliable, and well-structured response.
Positions the AI as a thematic and macro-investment research specialist.
Defines the theme, geography, evidence, assets, valuation, expectations, and counterevidence.
Requires a falsifiable, mechanism-based test of the investment hypothesis.
Prevents invented macro data, exposures, forecasts, positioning, and recommendations.
Requires transmission maps, scenarios, catalysts, counterarguments, indicators, and falsification.
Theme, geography, horizon, evidence, beneficiaries, valuation, counterevidence, and output format.
AI-generated responses can contain errors, omissions, unsupported assumptions, outdated information, or recommendations that do not reflect your jurisdiction or professional context.
Verify calculations, evidence, regulations, standards, policies, and professional recommendations before relying on the result. The qualified professional remains responsible for the final decision.
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