{{company_asset}}
Company or Asset
Example: Example: Meridian Renewable Infrastructure
Identify the investment being reviewed.
Ready to Use
Complete Prompt
This prompt has variables that can be replaced with your own information. Copy and use it with your preferred LLM, or try it out in the LearnerBox Prompt Playground.
Act as a senior investment analyst and skeptical investment-committee reviewer.
Stress-test the investment thesis described below.
Company or asset:
{{company_asset}}
Investment thesis:
{{investment_thesis}}
Financial and valuation evidence:
{{financial_valuation_evidence}}
Catalysts:
{{catalysts}}
Risks and counterevidence:
{{risks_counterevidence}}
Positioning, time horizon, and decision context:
{{position_context}}
Analysis requirements:
1. Restate the thesis in one concise, falsifiable sentence.
2. Break the thesis into explicit assumptions.
3. Classify each assumption as:
- verified;
- supported but uncertain;
- speculative;
- contradicted; or
- missing evidence.
4. Evaluate:
- business quality;
- growth;
- margins;
- cash flow;
- balance sheet;
- competitive advantage;
- management;
- governance;
- capital allocation;
- industry structure;
- valuation; and
- expectations.
5. Identify the valuation and earnings assumptions required for the thesis to work.
6. Assess catalysts by:
- probability;
- timing;
- magnitude;
- market awareness;
- dependence;
- reversibility; and
- evidence.
7. Identify risks by:
- probability;
- impact;
- velocity;
- detectability;
- controllability; and
- correlation.
8. Identify vulnerabilities, including:
- leverage;
- liquidity;
- customer concentration;
- supplier concentration;
- regulation;
- technology;
- cyclicality;
- accounting quality;
- management credibility;
- valuation;
- crowded positioning; and
- thesis dependence on terminal value or multiple expansion.
9. Develop bull, base, bear, and thesis-break scenarios.
10. Identify disconfirming evidence and alternative explanations.
11. Define leading indicators and monitoring thresholds.
12. Define explicit thesis-failure and exit conditions.
13. Separate investment quality from current valuation.
14. Identify which assumptions are already priced into the market, if evidence is supplied.
15. Do not invent market prices, forecasts, positioning, catalysts, probabilities, or company facts.
16. Do not present the output as personalized investment advice.
Present the result as:
{{output_format}}
Include:
- one-sentence thesis;
- assumption register;
- business and financial review;
- valuation dependence;
- catalyst matrix;
- risk matrix;
- vulnerability map;
- bull, base, bear, and thesis-break scenarios;
- disconfirming evidence;
- leading indicators;
- thesis-failure conditions;
- unanswered questions; and
- overall thesis robustness assessment.Customization Variables
Replace each variable shown in double curly brackets with accurate information from your own professional context.
{{investment_thesis}}
Investment Thesis
Example: State why the asset is expected to outperform, underperform, or preserve capital.
Write the thesis in a way that can be tested and disproved.
{{financial_valuation_evidence}}
Financial and Valuation Evidence
Example: Provide historicals, forecasts, valuation, balance sheet, cash flow, peers, and expectations.
Use current, sourced, and internally consistent information.
{{catalysts}}
Catalysts
Example: List potential events, timing, dependencies, evidence, and expected financial effect.
Distinguish genuine catalysts from events already expected by the market.
{{risks_counterevidence}}
Risks and Counterevidence
Example: Provide bear arguments, contrary data, structural risks, execution risks, and thesis contradictions.
Strong review requires credible disconfirming evidence.
{{position_context}}
Positioning, Time Horizon, and Decision Context
Example: Describe time horizon, portfolio role, benchmark, liquidity, position size, and decision required.
This context affects which risks and catalysts matter most.
{{output_format}}
Output Format
Choose the format appropriate for research, committee challenge, or monitoring.
Expected Output
A rigorous investment-thesis stress test containing assumptions, business quality, valuation dependence, catalysts, risks, vulnerabilities, scenarios, disconfirming evidence, leading indicators, and explicit thesis-break conditions.
💡 Important:
The quality of the result depends on the
completeness, accuracy, and relevance of the
information supplied to the AI.
Prompt Characteristics
These characteristics describe the type of thinking, customization, and output structure involved in using this prompt effectively.
Prompt Anatomy
This breakdown explains how the prompt’s major components work together to guide the AI toward a useful, reliable, and well-structured response.
Role
Positions the AI as a skeptical investment analyst and committee reviewer.
Context
Defines the thesis, financial evidence, catalysts, risks, counterevidence, horizon, and decision context.
Task
Requires a structured pre-mortem and stress test of thesis robustness.
Constraints
Prevents invented market data, forecasts, catalysts, probabilities, positioning, and advice.
Output Structure
Requires assumptions, catalysts, risks, vulnerabilities, scenarios, indicators, and failure conditions.
Input Variables
Company or asset, thesis, financial evidence, catalysts, risks, context, and output format.
Customization Tips
- Write the thesis in one falsifiable sentence before adding detail.
- Separate business quality from valuation attractiveness.
- Track disconfirming evidence rather than only supportive data.
- Define exit conditions before the thesis is under pressure.
- Identify which parts of the thesis depend on multiple expansion, terminal value, or uncertain catalysts.
Responsible Professional Use
Review Before Applying the Output
AI-generated responses can contain errors, omissions, unsupported assumptions, outdated information, or recommendations that do not reflect your jurisdiction or professional context.
Verify calculations, evidence, regulations, standards, policies, and professional recommendations before relying on the result. The qualified professional remains responsible for the final decision.